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Dinamo Minsk vs ML Vitebsk — Premier League 2018

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
11/29/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Dinamo Minsk35%
×Draw27%
ML Vitebsk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.25
ML Vitebsk
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 125 home / 24 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
1.75
ML Vitebsk
1.92

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
0.75
ML Vitebsk
0.75

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
61%
Dinamo Minsk or ML Vitebsk
73%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
65%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
15%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
36%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
13%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
74%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
38%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
47%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 125 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 1.75 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.25

ML Vitebsk attack 1.92 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
35%
level
27%
ML Vitebsk scores more
39%

ML Vitebsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk vs ML Vitebsk

Dinamo Minsk and ML Vitebsk drew 1-1 in Premier League on November 29, 2025.

The match was played at National Stadium in Minsk.