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Dinamo Minsk vs ML Vitebsk — Coppa 2019

Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Minskadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
4/29/2026CoppaCoppa · Semi-finalsStadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dinamo Minsk25%
×Draw19%
ML Vitebsk56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Minsk
1.58
ML Vitebsk
2.42

ML Vitebsk creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Dinamo Minsk
2.17
ML Vitebsk
4.00

allows per match

Dinamo Minsk
0.83
ML Vitebsk
1.00

finishing

Dinamo Minsk+0.00on par
ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Minsk ↓

ML Vitebsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Dinamo Minsk or draw
44%
Dinamo Minsk or ML Vitebsk
81%
Draw or ML Vitebsk
75%

Winning margin

Dinamo Minsk wins by 2+
11%
ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Dinamo Minsk 1+ goals
79%
Dinamo Minsk 2+ goals
47%
Dinamo Minsk 3+ goals
21%
ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
91%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
69%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Minsk (draw refunded)
31%
ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Minsk at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

ML Vitebsk away — creates 4.00, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Minsk attack 2.17 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

ML Vitebsk attack 4.00 + Dinamo Minsk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dinamo Minsk scores more
25%
level
19%
ML Vitebsk scores more
56%

ML Vitebsk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Minsk vs ML Vitebsk

Dinamo Minsk beat ML Vitebsk 1-0 in Coppa on April 29, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Minsk.