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Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Mjondalen
Mjondalen
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
J. Kitolano 87', 42'
7/29/2020EliteserienEliteserien · Round 11Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mjondalen44%
×Draw25%
ODD Ballklubb31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjondalen
1.52
ODD Ballklubb
1.23

Mjondalen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 89 away

creates per match

Mjondalen
1.32
ODD Ballklubb
1.08

allows per match

Mjondalen
1.39
ODD Ballklubb
1.71

finishing

Mjondalen+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 52Under: 4852%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 55No: 4555%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjondalen ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mjondalen or draw
69%
Mjondalen or ODD Ballklubb
75%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
56%

Winning margin

Mjondalen wins by 2+
22%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mjondalen 1+ goals
78%
Mjondalen 2+ goals
45%
Mjondalen 3+ goals
20%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
71%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
35%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mjondalen (draw refunded)
59%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjondalen at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjondalen attack 1.32 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.08 + Mjondalen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mjondalen scores more
44%
level
25%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
31%

Mjondalen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mjondalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
J. KitolanoODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb · M
9.2

Match Events

33'
Alexander Hansen
35'
W. Sell← T. Brochmann
42'
J. Kitolano↳ E. Ruud
46'
F. Nordkvelle← M. Kaasa
65'
O. Ugwuadu← K. Jakobsen
72'
F. Bamenye← M. Ovenstad
72'
J. Solberg← F. Brustad
81'
B. Njie← M. Bakenga
86'
Q. Jansen← S. Ibrahim
87'
J. Kitolano↳ B. Njie

Possession

Mjondalen: 29ODD: 7129%Mjondalen

Shots

Mjondalen: 6ODD: 176Mjondalen

Pass accuracy

Mjondalen: 73ODD: 9244%Mjondalen

Statistics

MjondalenODD
Overview
29%Possession71%
6Total Shots17
1Corners7
12Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots17
1On Target5
2Off Target9
3Blocked3
2Inside Box8
4Outside Box9
Passing
29%Possession71%
275Total Passes672
202Accurate Passes618
73%Pass Accuracy92%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls7
1Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb

ODD Ballklubb beat Mjondalen 2-0 in Eliteserien on July 29, 2020.

Goals: J. Kitolano (42', 87').

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (71%) and registered 17 shots to 6.

The match was played at Consto Arena in Mjøndalen.