Mjondalen 2–0 ODD Ballklubb: Result & Stats

Mjondalen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

ODD Ballklubb

Tonny Brochmann 83' (pen)

Olivier Occean 57'

7/14/2019

Eliteserien · Round 15Isachsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mjondalen44%

×Draw25%

ODD Ballklubb31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjondalenExpected goals in this matchODD Ballklubb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.23

Mjondalen

1.52

ODD Ballklubb

1.23

Mjondalen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 89 away

1.32

creates per match

1.08

1.39

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Mjondalen

1.32

ODD Ballklubb

1.08

allows per match

Mjondalen

1.39

ODD Ballklubb

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjondalen+0.00on par

ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjondalen ↓

ODD Ballklubb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mjondalen or draw

69%

Mjondalen or ODD Ballklubb

75%

Draw or ODD Ballklubb

56%

Winning margin

Mjondalen wins by 2+

22%

ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mjondalen 1+ goals

78%

Mjondalen 2+ goals

45%

Mjondalen 3+ goals

20%

ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals

71%

ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals

35%

ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mjondalen (draw refunded)

59%

ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjondalen at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.71 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjondalen attack 1.32 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.08 + Mjondalen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mjondalen scores more

44%

level

25%

ODD Ballklubb scores more

31%

Mjondalen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mjondalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Olivier Occean

Mjondalen · F

7.7

Match Events

48'

Espen Ruud

56'

Fredrik Nordkvelle← Jone Samuelsen

57'

Olivier Occean↳ Joackim Solberg

64'

Tonny Brochmann

65'

Fredrik Brustad

68'

Tobias Lauritsen← Espen Ruud

73'

William Sell← Fredrik Brustad

75'

Alfred Scriven← Olivier Occean

78'

Marcus Andre Kaasa← Vebjørn Hoff

81'

Sondre Rossbach

83'

Tonny BrochmannPenalty

87'

Julian Faye Lund

90'

Tonny Brochmann← Tonny Brochmann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MjondalenODD

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots13

3Corners4

14Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots13

5On Target1

4Off Target7

0Blocked5

8Inside Box6

1Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

343Total Passes482

246Accurate Passes390

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3

Eliteserien: Mjondalen 2–0 ODD Ballklubb

Mjondalen beat ODD Ballklubb 2-0 in Eliteserien on July 14, 2019.

Goals: Olivier Occean (57'), Tonny Brochmann (83' pen).

ODD Ballklubb controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Isachsen Stadion in Mjondalen.

Mjondalen vs ODD Ballklubb — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Mjondalen 2–0 ODD Ballklubb