Mjondalen 3–0 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Mjondalen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Haugesund

M. Nakkim 76'

S. Eriksen 57'

M. Ovenstad 20'

7/10/2021

Eliteserien · Round 12Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mjondalen44%

×Draw25%

Haugesund31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjondalenExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.23

Mjondalen

1.51

Haugesund

1.23

Mjondalen creates 23% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 105 away

1.32

creates per match

1.06

1.39

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Mjondalen

1.32

Haugesund

1.06

allows per match

Mjondalen

1.39

Haugesund

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjondalen+0.00on par

Haugesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjondalen ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mjondalen or draw

69%

Mjondalen or Haugesund

75%

Draw or Haugesund

56%

Winning margin

Mjondalen wins by 2+

22%

Haugesund wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mjondalen 1+ goals

78%

Mjondalen 2+ goals

44%

Mjondalen 3+ goals

19%

Haugesund 1+ goals

71%

Haugesund 2+ goals

35%

Haugesund 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mjondalen (draw refunded)

59%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjondalen at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.70 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjondalen attack 1.32 + Haugesund defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.51

Haugesund attack 1.06 + Mjondalen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mjondalen scores more

44%

level

25%

Haugesund scores more

31%

Mjondalen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mjondalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Ovenstad

Mjondalen · F

8.6

Match Events

20'

M. Ovenstad↳ L. Larsen

27'

Sondre Liseth

28'

Isaac Twum

46'

Nikolas Walstad

46'

F. Brustad← L. Larsen

46'

I. Wadji← Bruno Leite

57'

S. Eriksen↳ M. Ovenstad

69'

M. Sande← K. Velde

69'

K. Gunnarshaug← F. Knudsen

71'

Kevin Martin Krygard

74'

J. Solberg← N. Walstad

74'

C. Gauseth← S. Aasmundsen

76'

M. Nakkim↳ J. Solberg

79'

M. Bækken← O. Sveen

83'

A. Hansen← S. Eriksen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MjondalenHaugesund

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots9

3Corners1

13Fouls18

Shots

11Total Shots9

4On Target1

5Off Target3

2Blocked5

9Inside Box3

2Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

358Total Passes437

267Accurate Passes362

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3