Haugesund 1–1 Mjondalen: Result & Stats

Haugesund

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mjondalen

F. Knudsen 88'

S. Liseth 66'

12/2/2020

Eliteserien · Round 27Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Haugesund45%

×Draw26%

Mjondalen29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HaugesundExpected goals in this matchMjondalen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.14

Haugesund

1.50

Mjondalen

1.14

Haugesund creates 32% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 29 away

1.42

creates per match

0.86

1.42

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Haugesund

1.42

Mjondalen

0.86

allows per match

Haugesund

1.42

Mjondalen

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par

Mjondalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Mjondalen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw

71%

Haugesund or Mjondalen

74%

Draw or Mjondalen

55%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+

23%

Mjondalen wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals

78%

Haugesund 2+ goals

44%

Haugesund 3+ goals

19%

Mjondalen 1+ goals

68%

Mjondalen 2+ goals

32%

Mjondalen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)

61%

Mjondalen (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 106 matches

Mjondalen away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.42 + Mjondalen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mjondalen attack 0.86 + Haugesund defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Haugesund scores more

45%

level

26%

Mjondalen scores more

29%

Haugesund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

P. Therkildsen

Haugesund · M

7.7

Match Events

17'

Stian Aasmundsen

21'

Mikkel Desler

35'

I. Twum← O. Sveen

40'

Kristoffer Velde

46'

J. Nilsen← A. Ammitzbøll

61'

63'

65'

66'

70'

71'

C. Grindheim← K. Krygård

74'

Sondre Liseth

79'

Sosha Makani

80'

Helge Sandvik

82'

F. Brustad← S. Ibrahim

82'

W. Sell← M. Ovenstad

83'

Jorge Vieira← C. Gauseth

84'

Jorge Vieira

88'

F. Knudsen↳ P. Therkildsen

90+2'

K. Gunnarshaug← P. Therkildsen

90+6'

Q. Jansen← S. Liseth

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HaugesundMjondalen

Overview

58%Possession42%

21Total Shots12

7Corners4

15Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots12

9On Target3

7Off Target8

5Blocked1

15Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

58%Possession42%

451Total Passes325

373Accurate Passes236

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls8

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Haugesund vs Mjondalen

Haugesund and Mjondalen drew 1-1 in Eliteserien on December 2, 2020.

Goals: S. Liseth (66'), F. Knudsen (88').

Haugesund controlled possession (58%) and registered 21 shots to 12.

The match was played at Haugesund Stadion in Haugesund.

Haugesund vs Mjondalen — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Haugesund vs Mjondalen