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Haugesund vs Mjondalen — Eliteserien 2026

Haugesund
Haugesund
CANC
00:00
Mjondalen
Mjondalen
9/25/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 23Haugesund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Haugesund45%
×Draw26%
Mjondalen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Haugesund
1.50
Mjondalen
1.14

Haugesund creates 32% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 29 away

creates per match

Haugesund
1.42
Mjondalen
0.86

allows per match

Haugesund
1.42
Mjondalen
1.59

finishing

Haugesund+0.00on par
Mjondalen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 53No: 4753%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Haugesund ↓

Mjondalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Haugesund or draw
71%
Haugesund or Mjondalen
74%
Draw or Mjondalen
55%

Winning margin

Haugesund wins by 2+
23%
Mjondalen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Haugesund 1+ goals
78%
Haugesund 2+ goals
44%
Haugesund 3+ goals
19%
Mjondalen 1+ goals
68%
Mjondalen 2+ goals
32%
Mjondalen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Haugesund (draw refunded)
61%
Mjondalen (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Haugesund at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.42 · 106 matches

Mjondalen away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Haugesund attack 1.42 + Mjondalen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mjondalen attack 0.86 + Haugesund defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Haugesund scores more
45%
level
26%
Mjondalen scores more
29%

Haugesund at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Haugesund face Mjondalen (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Haugesund hosting Mjondalen. Match starts September 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Haugesund host Mjondalen at Haugesund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.