Mjallby AIF 2–1 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Norrkoping

J. Bergstrom 67'

T. Pettersson 55'

C. Nyman 21'

10/26/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 28Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Mjallby AIF50%

×Draw24%

IFK Norrkoping26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.18

Mjallby AIF

1.72

IFK Norrkoping

1.18

Mjallby AIF creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.61

creates per match

1.27

1.08

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

1.61

IFK Norrkoping

1.27

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

1.08

IFK Norrkoping

1.83

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.03on par

IFK Norrkoping+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

74%

Mjallby AIF or IFK Norrkoping

76%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

50%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

27%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

82%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

51%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

25%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

69%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

33%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

66%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 19 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.83 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.61 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.27 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

50%

level

24%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

26%

Mjallby AIF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

U. Charles

Mjallby AIF · F

7.7

Match Events

21'

C. Nyman

30'

Jesper Gustavsson

42'

Tim Prica

46'

V. Gustafson← R. Arrhenius

46'

H. Johansson← T. Stavitski

46'

T. Pettersson← C. Tchouante

55'

T. Pettersson

66'

A. Andersson← T. Prica

67'

J. Kjaer← L. Thorell

67'

J. Bergstrom↳ H. Johansson

82'

I. Lushaku← A. Fransson

82'

Y. Kalley← M. Baggesen

90+3'

Max Watson

90+1'

L. Tidstrand← U. Charles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MjallbyIFK

Overview

73%Possession27%

14Total Shots11

1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.36

4Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots11

4On Target5

5Off Target2

5Blocked4

7Inside Box7

7Outside Box4

Passing

73%Possession27%

730Total Passes256

626Accurate Passes175

86%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2