IFK Norrkoping 1–1 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

IFK Norrkoping

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mjallby AIF

A. Traustason 85'

L. Thorell 43'

5/26/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 11Platinumcars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

IFK Norrkoping38%

×Draw24%

Mjallby AIF37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IFK NorrkopingExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.47

IFK Norrkoping

1.50

Mjallby AIF

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

1.52

creates per match

1.46

1.48

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.52

Mjallby AIF

1.46

allows per match

IFK Norrkoping

1.48

Mjallby AIF

1.47

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.49scores more than expected

finishing

IFK Norrkoping-0.13scores less

Mjallby AIF+0.49scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Norrkoping ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

IFK Norrkoping or draw

63%

IFK Norrkoping or Mjallby AIF

76%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

62%

Winning margin

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

18%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

78%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

44%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

19%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

77%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

43%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

51%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Norrkoping at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 18 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.47 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.52 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mjallby AIF attack 1.46 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

IFK Norrkoping scores more

38%

level

24%

Mjallby AIF scores more

37%

IFK Norrkoping at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "IFK Norrkoping will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

D. Andersson

IFK Norrkoping · G

8.3

Match Events

15'

U. Charles← T. Stavitski

17'

Axel Bronner

40'

Jacob Bergström

41'

Moutaz Neffati

43'

L. Thorell↳ N. Rojkjaer

45+5'

Uba Charles

51'

Kojo Peprah Oppong

60'

I. Lushaku← A. Bronner

60'

J. Ceesay← A. Fransson

60'

T. Prica← D. Karlsson

73'

B. Bang-Kittilsen← L. Thorell

73'

A. Johansson← J. Bergstrom

82'

L. Tidstrand←

82'

R. Arrhenius← A. Manneh

85'

A. Traustason

90+3'

K. Jansson← M. Baggesen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IFKMjallby

Overview

42%Possession58%

17Total Shots19

1.45Expected Goals (xG)1.49

6Corners7

15Fouls16

Shots

17Total Shots19

5On Target7

4Off Target5

8Blocked7

7Inside Box9

10Outside Box10

Passing

42%Possession58%

354Total Passes490

283Accurate Passes414

80%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls16

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2