Mjallby AIF 3–0 IFK Norrkoping: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

IFK Norrkoping

N. Røjkjær 58'

R. Wikström 18'

J. Bergström 14'

4/6/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 2Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Mjallby AIF50%

×Draw24%

IFK Norrkoping26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchIFK Norrkoping

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.18

Mjallby AIF

1.72

IFK Norrkoping

1.18

Mjallby AIF creates 46% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.61

creates per match

1.27

1.08

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

1.61

IFK Norrkoping

1.27

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

1.08

IFK Norrkoping

1.83

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.03on par

IFK Norrkoping+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

IFK Norrkoping →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

74%

Mjallby AIF or IFK Norrkoping

76%

Draw or IFK Norrkoping

50%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

27%

IFK Norrkoping wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

82%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

51%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

25%

IFK Norrkoping 1+ goals

69%

IFK Norrkoping 2+ goals

33%

IFK Norrkoping 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

66%

IFK Norrkoping (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 19 matches

IFK Norrkoping away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.83 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.61 + IFK Norrkoping defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.72

IFK Norrkoping attack 1.27 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

50%

level

24%

IFK Norrkoping scores more

26%

Mjallby AIF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

E. Stroud

Mjallby AIF · M

8.3

Match Events

14'

J. Bergström↳ A. Johansson

18'

R. Wikström↳ E. Stroud

46'

D. Salihović← V. Hammershøy-Mistrati

58'

N. Røjkjær↳ A. Johansson

61'

Kevin Höög Jansson

68'

M. Baggesen← Y. Kalley

68'

T. Sandberg← C. Björk

68'

Joseph Ceesay← A. Eriksson

77'

H. Johansson← A. Ståhl

77'

I. Jagne← A. Johansson

77'

A. Brorsson← V. Gustafson

79'

Í. Sigurgeirsson← C. Nyman

82'

Jacob Bergström

85'

I. Johnson← N. Røjkjær

86'

S. Nwankwo← J. Bergström

89'

Herman Johansson

90'

Dino Salihovic

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MjallbyIFK

Overview

58%Possession42%

26Total Shots8

7Corners6

19Fouls11

Shots

26Total Shots8

10On Target2

11Off Target5

5Blocked1

17Inside Box3

9Outside Box5

Passing

58%Possession42%

435Total Passes321

358Accurate Passes233

82%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

19Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Allsvenskan: Mjallby AIF 3–0 IFK Norrkoping

Mjallby AIF beat IFK Norrkoping 3-0 in Allsvenskan on April 6, 2024.

Goals: J. Bergström (14'), R. Wikström (18'), N. Røjkjær (58').

Mjallby AIF controlled possession (58%) and registered 26 shots to 8.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.

Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: Mjallby AIF 3–0 IFK Norrkoping