Mjallby AIF 2–1 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Hammarby FF

5/14/2026

Svenska Cupen · FinalStrawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mjallby AIF31%

×Draw23%

Hammarby FF46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.81

Mjallby AIF

1.44

Hammarby FF

1.81

Hammarby FF creates 26% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

2.00

creates per match

2.82

0.81

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

2.00

Hammarby FF

2.82

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

0.81

Hammarby FF

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

54%

Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF

77%

Draw or Hammarby FF

69%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

14%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

76%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

42%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

18%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

84%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

54%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

40%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 2.82, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.00 + Hammarby FF defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hammarby FF attack 2.82 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

31%

level

23%

Hammarby FF scores more

46%

Hammarby FF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff