Hammarby FF 1–2 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Hammarby FF

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Mjallby AIF

5/22/2025

Allsvenskan · Round 183Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Hammarby FF49%

×Draw24%

Mjallby AIF27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hammarby FFExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.17

Hammarby FF

1.68

Mjallby AIF

1.17

Hammarby FF creates 44% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 97 away

2.25

creates per match

1.33

1.01

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Hammarby FF

2.25

Mjallby AIF

1.33

allows per match

Hammarby FF

1.01

Mjallby AIF

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hammarby FF+0.00on par

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hammarby FF ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Hammarby FF or draw

73%

Hammarby FF or Mjallby AIF

76%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

51%

Winning margin

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

26%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

81%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

50%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

24%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

69%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

33%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

65%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hammarby FF at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.01 · 127 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hammarby FF attack 2.25 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.68

Mjallby AIF attack 1.33 + Hammarby FF defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hammarby FF scores more

49%

level

24%

Mjallby AIF scores more

27%

Hammarby FF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff