Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
4/18/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 4Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mjallby AIF35%
×Draw28%
Hammarby FF37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
1.13
Hammarby FF
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
1.59
Hammarby FF
1.11

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
1.20
Hammarby FF
0.67

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.34scores less
Hammarby FF+0.29scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
63%
Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF
72%
Draw or Hammarby FF
65%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
14%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
68%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
31%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
11%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
69%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
32%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
49%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.59 + Hammarby FF defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hammarby FF attack 1.11 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
35%
level
28%
Hammarby FF scores more
37%

Hammarby FF at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hammarby FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Mjallby AIF 3–1 Hammarby FF

Mjallby AIF beat Hammarby FF 3-1 in Allsvenskan on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Hallevik.