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Mjallby AIF vs Angelholms FF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Angelholms FF
Angelholms FF
A. Andersson 89'
J. Nilsson 53'
10/22/2017Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Round 24Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Mjallby AIF66%
×Draw19%
Angelholms FF15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
2.17
Angelholms FF
0.91

Mjallby AIF creates 138% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 73 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
2.57
Angelholms FF
1.11

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
0.71
Angelholms FF
1.78

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par
Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Angelholms FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
85%
Mjallby AIF or Angelholms FF
81%
Draw or Angelholms FF
34%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
42%
Angelholms FF wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
89%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
64%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
36%
Angelholms FF 1+ goals
60%
Angelholms FF 2+ goals
23%
Angelholms FF 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
82%
Angelholms FF (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Angelholms FF away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.57 + Angelholms FF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.17

Angelholms FF attack 1.11 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
66%
level
19%
Angelholms FF scores more
15%

Mjallby AIF at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
J. Nilsson
89'
A. Andersson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Södra: Mjallby AIF 2–0 Angelholms FF

Mjallby AIF beat Angelholms FF 2-0 in Ettan - Södra on October 22, 2017.

Goals: J. Nilsson (53'), A. Andersson (89').

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.