Angelholms FF 2–1 Mjallby AIF: Result & Stats

Angelholms FF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mjallby AIF

A. Karlsson 87'

O. Stojanovic-Fredin 78'

O. Sverrisson 7' (pen)

6/6/2018

Ettan - Södra · Round 10Änglavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Angelholms FF35%

×Draw24%

Mjallby AIF41%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Angelholms FFExpected goals in this matchMjallby AIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.56

Angelholms FF

1.42

Mjallby AIF

1.56

Mjallby AIF creates 10% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 8 away

1.33

creates per match

1.75

1.38

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Angelholms FF

1.33

Mjallby AIF

1.75

allows per match

Angelholms FF

1.38

Mjallby AIF

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Angelholms FF ↓

Mjallby AIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Angelholms FF or draw

59%

Angelholms FF or Mjallby AIF

76%

Draw or Mjallby AIF

65%

Winning margin

Angelholms FF wins by 2+

16%

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Angelholms FF 1+ goals

76%

Angelholms FF 2+ goals

41%

Angelholms FF 3+ goals

17%

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

79%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

46%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)

46%

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Angelholms FF at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.38 · 73 matches

Mjallby AIF away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Angelholms FF attack 1.33 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mjallby AIF attack 1.75 + Angelholms FF defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Angelholms FF scores more

35%

level

24%

Mjallby AIF scores more

41%

Mjallby AIF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

O. SverrissonPenalty

56'

J. Nilsson← J. Bergström

62'

K. Jeppsson← A. Engholm

66'

F. Widlund← A. Simovski

72'

A. Andersson← K. Prosper

77'

M. Eriksson← E. Nilsson

78'

O. Stojanovic-Fredin

82'

Simon Dimitrijevic← D. Löfquist

87'

A. Karlsson

Angelholms

Mjallby

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Tengryd

62'▲K. Jeppsson←▼A. Engholm

66'▲F. Widlund←▼A. Simovski

77'▲M. Eriksson←▼E. Nilsson

Angelholms FF substitutes

JeppssonWidlundErikssonAgeliusJohanssonLeidewallLennselius

Manager: J. Andersson

56'▲J. Nilsson←▼J. Bergström

72'▲A. Andersson←▼K. Prosper

82'▲Simon Dimitrijevic←▼D. Löfquist

Mjallby AIF substitutes

NilssonAnderssonDimitrijevicNorénEkmanSilverholtOttosson

Ettan - Södra: Angelholms FF 2–1 Mjallby AIF

Angelholms FF beat Mjallby AIF 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on June 6, 2018.

Goals: O. Sverrisson (7' pen), O. Stojanovic-Fredin (78'), A. Karlsson (87').

The match was played at Änglavallen in Ängelholm.

Angelholms FF vs Mjallby AIF — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ettan - Södra: Angelholms FF 2–1 Mjallby AIF