Mjallby AIF 3–0 Angelholms FF: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Angelholms FF

T. Silverholt 90'

B. Jobe 45+1'

D. Löfquist 23'

7/21/2018

Ettan - Södra · Round 17Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mjallby AIF67%

×Draw19%

Angelholms FF14%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchAngelholms FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.86

Mjallby AIF

2.19

Angelholms FF

0.86

Mjallby AIF creates 155% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 72 away

2.60

creates per match

1.13

0.60

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

2.60

Angelholms FF

1.13

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

0.60

Angelholms FF

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Angelholms FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Angelholms FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

86%

Mjallby AIF or Angelholms FF

81%

Draw or Angelholms FF

33%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

44%

Angelholms FF wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

89%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

64%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

37%

Angelholms FF 1+ goals

58%

Angelholms FF 2+ goals

21%

Angelholms FF 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

83%

Angelholms FF (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.60, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Angelholms FF away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.78 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.60 + Angelholms FF defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.19

Angelholms FF attack 1.13 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

67%

level

19%

Angelholms FF scores more

14%

Mjallby AIF at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

D. Löfquist

25'

A. Hallbäck← O. Zachrison

45+2'

E. Agelius← A. Karlsson

45+1'

B. Jobe

62'

J. Nilsson← P. Kasim

73'

T. Silverholt← J. Bergström

81'

J. Gustavsson← V. Gustafsson

81'

F. Widlund← A. Simovski

90'

T. Silverholt

Mjallby

Angelholms

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Andersson

62'▲J. Nilsson←▼P. Kasim

73'▲T. Silverholt←▼J. Bergström

81'▲J. Gustavsson←▼V. Gustafsson

Mjallby AIF substitutes

NilssonSilverholtGustavssonNorénTerzicOttossonEkman

Manager: A. Tengryd

25'▲A. Hallbäck←▼O. Zachrison

45+2'▲E. Agelius←▼A. Karlsson

81'▲F. Widlund←▼A. Simovski

Angelholms FF substitutes

HallbäckAgeliusWidlundNilssonErikssonLeidewallStreifert

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs Angelholms FF

Mjallby AIF beat Angelholms FF 3-0 in Ettan - Södra on July 21, 2018.

Goals: D. Löfquist (23'), B. Jobe (45+1'), T. Silverholt (90').

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.

Mjallby AIF vs Angelholms FF — Ettan - Södra 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs Angelholms FF