Mirandes 0–3 Sporting Gijon: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Gijon

Christian Rivera 72'

Aitor García 67'

U. Đurđević 33' (pen)

2/12/2022

Segunda División · Round 27Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mirandes39%

×Draw26%

Sporting Gijon35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchSporting Gijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.28

Mirandes

1.38

Sporting Gijon

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.23

creates per match

1.14

1.43

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Sporting Gijon

1.14

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Sporting Gijon

1.52

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Sporting Gijon-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Sporting Gijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

65%

Mirandes or Sporting Gijon

74%

Draw or Sporting Gijon

61%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

18%

Sporting Gijon wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

75%

Mirandes 2+ goals

40%

Mirandes 3+ goals

16%

Sporting Gijon 1+ goals

72%

Sporting Gijon 2+ goals

37%

Sporting Gijon 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

53%

Sporting Gijon (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Sporting Gijon away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.52 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Sporting Gijon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Sporting Gijon attack 1.14 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mirandes scores more

39%

level

26%

Sporting Gijon scores more

35%

Mirandes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Diego Mariño

Sporting Gijon · G

7.9

Match Events

30'

Pedro DíazPenalty awarded

32'

Niko Datković

33'

U. ĐurđevićPenalty

47'

Jorge Sáenz

51'

José Luis Rodríguez← Jony

67'

Aitor García↳ Fran Villalba

69'

Alejandro Marqués← H. Hassan

69'

Iñigo Vicente← Sergio Camello

69'

Rodrigo Riquelme← N. Datković

70'

Sergio Carreira

72'

Christian Rivera↳ U. Đurđević

76'

Gaspar Campos← Aitor García

76'

José Gragera← Pedro Díaz

77'

Iago López← Sergio Carreira

77'

Jon Garrido← Martín Calderón

77'

E. Ramírez← U. Đurđević

84'

Pablo Pérez← Fran Villalba

88'

Iñigo Vicente

88'

Jordi Calavera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesSporting

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots15

7Corners2

10Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots15

4On Target4

6Off Target7

3Blocked4

5Inside Box12

8Outside Box3

Passing

49%Possession51%

443Total Passes468

372Accurate Passes385

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Sporting Gijon

Sporting Gijon beat Mirandes 3-0 in Segunda División on February 12, 2022.

Goals: U. Đurđević (33' pen), Aitor García (67'), Christian Rivera (72').

Sporting Gijon controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Sporting Gijon — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Sporting Gijon