Mirandes 2–1 Fuenlabrada: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fuenlabrada

N. Djouahra 66'

Javi Muñoz 34'

A. Kanté 26'

5/9/2021

Segunda División · Round 38Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Mirandes45%

×Draw27%

Fuenlabrada28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchFuenlabrada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Mirandes

1.38

Fuenlabrada

1.02

Mirandes creates 35% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 63 away

1.42

creates per match

0.92

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Fuenlabrada

0.92

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Fuenlabrada

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Fuenlabrada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

72%

Mirandes or Fuenlabrada

73%

Draw or Fuenlabrada

55%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

75%

Mirandes 2+ goals

40%

Mirandes 3+ goals

16%

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

64%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

27%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

62%

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fuenlabrada attack 0.92 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mirandes scores more

45%

level

27%

Fuenlabrada scores more

28%

Mirandes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Djouahra

Mirandes · M

8.0

Match Events

26'

A. Kanté↳ Cristóbal

34'

Javi Muñoz↳ C. Martínez

44'

Adrián Diéguez

46'

Javi Jiménez← C. Martínez

49'

Antonio Caballero

61'

Javier Espinosa← Borja Garcés

65'

Pablo Martínez← M. Ezzarfani

65'

Mario Barco← Cristo González

66'

N. Djouahra↳ Javi Muñoz

71'

Álex Mula← Adrián Diéguez

71'

Mikel Iribas← Pol Valentín

74'

Mario Barco VilaGoal cancelled

74'

Rubén Pulido

79'

S. Gassama← A. Fuentes

80'

E. Jirka← N. Djouahra

85'

Genaro Rodríguez← Antonio Caballero

90'

90'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesFuenlabrada

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots9

2Corners5

17Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target4

4Off Target4

4Blocked1

8Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

360Total Passes237

267Accurate Passes149

74%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls14

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides3

Segunda División: Mirandes 2–1 Fuenlabrada

Mirandes beat Fuenlabrada 2-1 in Segunda División on May 9, 2021.

Goals: A. Kanté (26'), Javi Muñoz (34'), N. Djouahra (66').

Mirandes controlled possession (60%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Fuenlabrada — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Mirandes 2–1 Fuenlabrada