Fuenlabrada 1–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Fuenlabrada

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Mirandes

Pedro León 8'

Brugui 84'

11/19/2021

Segunda División · Round 17Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Fuenlabrada43%

×Draw28%

Mirandes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FuenlabradaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.03

Fuenlabrada

1.32

Mirandes

1.03

Fuenlabrada creates 28% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 149 away

1.16

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Fuenlabrada

1.16

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Fuenlabrada

1.06

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw

71%

Fuenlabrada or Mirandes

72%

Draw or Mirandes

57%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

20%

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

73%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

38%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

15%

Mirandes 1+ goals

64%

Mirandes 2+ goals

28%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

60%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 63 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.16 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more

43%

level

28%

Mirandes scores more

29%

Fuenlabrada at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Adrián Diéguez

Fuenlabrada · D

7.5

Match Events

8'

Pedro León↳ Cristóbal

18'

Iban Salvador

30'

Iban Salvador

30'

Iban Salvador

39'

Anderson Cordeiro Costa

46'

Mikel Iribas← Anderson

46'

Álex Mula← J. Dago

46'

César Gelabert← Oriol Rey

47'

Víctor Meseguer

59'

Iñigo Vicente← Rodrigo Riquelme

64'

César GelabertPenalty cancelled

72'

Stephane M'Bia

75'

H. Hassan← Sergio Carreira

76'

Adrián Diéguez

76'

Pedro León

76'

Odei Onaindia

78'

Arturo Molina← Pedro León

81'

César Gelabert

84'

A. Fuentes← S. MBia

84'

Brugui↳ César Gelabert

90+6'

Mikel Iribas

90'

Alejandro Marqués← Álex López

90'

Iago López← Sergio Camello

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FuenlabradaMirandes

Overview

30%Possession70%

7Total Shots18

6Corners10

15Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots18

2On Target4

3Off Target7

2Blocked7

3Inside Box12

4Outside Box6

Passing

30%Possession70%

208Total Passes476

127Accurate Passes397

61%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls17

7Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1