Fuenlabrada 2–2 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Fuenlabrada

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

Anderson Cruz 90+1'

Hugo Fraile 71' (pen)

Matheus Barrozo 77' (pen)

Martín Merquelanz 63'

7/4/2020

Segunda División · Round 38Estadio Fernando Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Fuenlabrada43%

×Draw28%

Mirandes29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FuenlabradaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.03

Fuenlabrada

1.32

Mirandes

1.03

Fuenlabrada creates 28% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 149 away

1.16

creates per match

1.00

1.06

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Fuenlabrada

1.16

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Fuenlabrada

1.06

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuenlabrada ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fuenlabrada or draw

71%

Fuenlabrada or Mirandes

72%

Draw or Mirandes

57%

Winning margin

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

20%

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

73%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

38%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

15%

Mirandes 1+ goals

64%

Mirandes 2+ goals

28%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

60%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuenlabrada at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 63 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuenlabrada attack 1.16 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fuenlabrada scores more

43%

level

28%

Mirandes scores more

29%

Fuenlabrada at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fuenlabrada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Martín Merquelanz

Mirandes · M

8.3

Match Events

13'

21'

21'

27'

32'

J. Martínez← S. Gassama

46'

Anderson Cruz← José Fran

57'

Álvaro Rey← Joaquín Muñoz

63'

Martín Merquelanz

70'

A. Gonzalez

71'

Hugo FrailePenalty

72'

Cristóbal← Hugo Fraile

77'

Matheus BarrozoPenalty

80'

Caye Quintana← R. Nteka

80'

Oriol Riera← Antonio Cristian

83'

C. Martínez← Kijera

87'

C. Flores

88'

Álvaro Peña← Maranhão

90+5'

J. Martinez

90+1'

Anderson Cruz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FuenlabradaMirandes

Overview

39%Possession61%

7Total Shots18

4Corners7

19Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots18

2On Target5

2Off Target9

3Blocked4

6Inside Box9

1Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

264Total Passes410

181Accurate Passes339

69%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

19Fouls11

5Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Fuenlabrada vs Mirandes

Fuenlabrada and Mirandes drew 2-2 in Segunda División on July 4, 2020.

Goals: Martín Merquelanz (63'), Hugo Fraile (71' pen), Matheus Barrozo (77' pen), Anderson Cruz (90+1').

Mirandes controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Fernando Torres in Fuenlabrada.

Fuenlabrada vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fuenlabrada vs Mirandes