Mirandes 2–1 Fuenlabrada: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fuenlabrada

Martín Merquelanz 83'

Maranhão 9'

R. Nteka 90+3'

10/13/2019

Segunda División · Round 11Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Mirandes45%

×Draw27%

Fuenlabrada28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchFuenlabrada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Mirandes

1.38

Fuenlabrada

1.02

Mirandes creates 35% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 63 away

1.42

creates per match

0.92

1.11

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Fuenlabrada

0.92

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Fuenlabrada

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Fuenlabrada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

72%

Mirandes or Fuenlabrada

73%

Draw or Fuenlabrada

55%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

21%

Fuenlabrada wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

75%

Mirandes 2+ goals

40%

Mirandes 3+ goals

16%

Fuenlabrada 1+ goals

64%

Fuenlabrada 2+ goals

27%

Fuenlabrada 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

62%

Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Fuenlabrada attack 0.92 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mirandes scores more

45%

level

27%

Fuenlabrada scores more

28%

Mirandes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Martín Merquelanz

Mirandes · F

7.7

Match Events

9'

Maranhão↳ Iñigo Vicente

30'

Mickael Malsa

53'

Oriol Riera← J. Martínez

58'

Martín Merquelanz← Iñigo Vicente

62'

P. Ciss← Clavería

69'

Matheus Barrozo← Álvaro Rey

71'

73'

77'

83'

84'

Álex Vallejo← Antonio Cristian

90'

Galder Cerrajería← Antonio Sánchez

90+3'

R. Nteka↳ José Fran

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesFuenlabrada

Overview

42%Possession58%

9Total Shots8

3Corners7

13Fouls21

Shots

9Total Shots8

2On Target2

6Off Target5

1Blocked1

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

280Total Passes374

173Accurate Passes271

62%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls21

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0