Mirandes 1–1 FC Andorra: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

FC Andorra

Raúl García 26'

S. Bakış 90+8'

9/11/2022

Segunda División · Round 5Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mirandes38%

×Draw26%

FC Andorra35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchFC Andorra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.27

Mirandes

1.34

FC Andorra

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.23

creates per match

1.10

1.43

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

FC Andorra

1.10

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

FC Andorra

1.45

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

FC Andorra+0.33scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

FC Andorra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

65%

Mirandes or FC Andorra

74%

Draw or FC Andorra

62%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

17%

FC Andorra wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

74%

Mirandes 2+ goals

39%

Mirandes 3+ goals

15%

FC Andorra 1+ goals

72%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

36%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

52%

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

FC Andorra away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + FC Andorra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

FC Andorra attack 1.10 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mirandes scores more

38%

level

26%

FC Andorra scores more

35%

Mirandes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Raúl García

Mirandes · F

7.7

Match Events

26'

Raúl García↳ Raúl Navas

58'

Marti Vila Garcia

62'

Javi Serrano← Roberto López

63'

H. Hevel← Germán Valera

63'

Carlos Martínez← Marc Fernández

63'

C. Albanis← Mika Màrmol

71'

Óscar Pinchi← Marcos Paulo

71'

Jofre Carreras← Juanlu Sánchez

76'

Raúl Parra← Sergio Santos

78'

S. Mráz← Raúl García

78'

M. Bundu← Adrià Altimira

81'

Dani MorerCard upgrade

82'

Dani Morer

85'

S. Bakış← Iván Gil

90+8'

S. Bakış

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesFC

Overview

34%Possession66%

10Total Shots14

3Corners5

10Fouls8

Shots

10Total Shots14

4On Target6

5Off Target6

1Blocked2

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

34%Possession66%

263Total Passes516

187Accurate Passes438

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1