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FC Andorra vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mirandes
Mirandes
D. Villahermosa 21'
C. Fernandez 26' (pen)
9/20/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadi de la FAF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC Andorra47%
×Draw26%
Mirandes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.47
Mirandes
1.04

FC Andorra creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.50
Mirandes
1.05

allows per match

FC Andorra
1.03
Mirandes
1.44

finishing

FC Andorra-0.39scores less
Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
73%
FC Andorra or Mirandes
74%
Draw or Mirandes
53%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
23%
Mirandes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
77%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
43%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
18%
Mirandes 1+ goals
65%
Mirandes 2+ goals
28%
Mirandes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
64%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.50 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mirandes attack 1.05 + FC Andorra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Andorra scores more
47%
level
26%
Mirandes scores more
27%

FC Andorra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
G. AlonsoFC AndorraFC Andorra · D
8.2

Match Events

8'
Min-su Kim
16'
Fernando Medrano
21'
D. Villahermosa↳ T. Carrique
26'
C. FernandezPenalty
32'
Martín Pascual
35'
Iker Cordoba
46'
A. Pica← I. Cordoba
53'
S. Postigo← H. Novoa Ramos
55'
G. Jastin← M. Domenech
65'
Alvaro← D. Villahermosa
69'
S. El Jebari← I. Varela
79'
A. Martin Luis← P. Lopez
80'
G. Petit← C. Fernandez
82'
Rafael Bauza
84'
A. Uzkudun← T. Carrique
85'
Marti Vila Garcia
85'
Sergio Postigo

Possession

77%FC

Shots

18FC

Pass accuracy

60%FC

Statistics

FCMirandes
Overview
77%Possession23%
18Total Shots7
8Corners4
15Fouls22
Shots
18Total Shots7
6On Target2
9Off Target2
3Blocked3
7Inside Box5
11Outside Box2
Passing
77%Possession23%
592Total Passes172
538Accurate Passes105
91%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
15Fouls22
2Yellow Cards5

Segunda División: FC Andorra 1–1 Mirandes

FC Andorra and Mirandes drew 1-1 in Segunda División on September 20, 2025.

Goals: D. Villahermosa (21'), C. Fernandez (26' pen).

FC Andorra controlled possession (77%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadi de la FAF in Encamp.