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FC Andorra vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

FC Andorra
FC Andorra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mirandes
Mirandes
Jon Karrikaburu 78'
3/30/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 33Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC Andorra47%
×Draw26%
Mirandes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Andorra
1.47
Mirandes
1.04

FC Andorra creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Andorra
1.50
Mirandes
1.05

allows per match

FC Andorra
1.03
Mirandes
1.44

finishing

FC Andorra-0.39scores less
Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Mirandes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw
73%
FC Andorra or Mirandes
74%
Draw or Mirandes
53%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+
23%
Mirandes wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals
77%
FC Andorra 2+ goals
43%
FC Andorra 3+ goals
18%
Mirandes 1+ goals
65%
Mirandes 2+ goals
28%
Mirandes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)
64%
Mirandes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.50 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mirandes attack 1.05 + FC Andorra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Andorra scores more
47%
level
26%
Mirandes scores more
27%

FC Andorra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
Álex PetxaFC AndorraFC Andorra · D
8.2

Match Events

29'
Sergio Barcia
62'
Rubén Bover← Jorge Pombo
70'
Álex Petxa
70'
A. La Gumina← Carlos Martín
71'
Gabriel Martínez
77'
Iker Benito← Iván Gil
78'
Jon Karrikaburu↳ Álex Petxa
83'
M. Lachuer← Tachi
83'
Juan María Alcedo← Barbu
87'
L. de León← Álvaro Sanz
90'
Diego Alende← Julen Lobete
90'
A. Scheidler← Jon Karrikaburu

Possession

70%FC

Shots

9FC

Pass accuracy

56%FC

Statistics

FCMirandes
Overview
70%Possession30%
9Total Shots8
4Corners6
11Fouls16
Shots
9Total Shots8
2On Target5
4Off Target2
3Blocked1
3Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
70%Possession30%
547Total Passes229
466Accurate Passes150
85%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides4

Segunda División: FC Andorra 1–0 Mirandes

FC Andorra beat Mirandes 1-0 in Segunda División on March 30, 2024.

Goals: Jon Karrikaburu (78').

FC Andorra controlled possession (70%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.