FC Andorra 0–1 Mirandes: Result & Stats

FC Andorra

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

Raúl García 86' (pen)

4/30/2023

Segunda División · Round 38Estadi Nacional

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC Andorra47%

×Draw26%

Mirandes27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC AndorraExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.04

FC Andorra

1.47

Mirandes

1.04

FC Andorra creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.05

1.03

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

FC Andorra

1.50

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

FC Andorra

1.03

Mirandes

1.44

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

FC Andorra-0.39scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Andorra ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

FC Andorra or draw

73%

FC Andorra or Mirandes

74%

Draw or Mirandes

53%

Winning margin

FC Andorra wins by 2+

23%

Mirandes wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

FC Andorra 1+ goals

77%

FC Andorra 2+ goals

43%

FC Andorra 3+ goals

18%

Mirandes 1+ goals

65%

Mirandes 2+ goals

28%

Mirandes 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FC Andorra (draw refunded)

64%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Andorra at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.03 · 9 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Andorra attack 1.50 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Mirandes attack 1.05 + FC Andorra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Andorra scores more

47%

level

26%

Mirandes scores more

27%

FC Andorra at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Andorra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

Diego Pampín

FC Andorra · D

7.7

Match Events

44'

Álvaro Sanz Catalán

65'

Iván Gil← Sergio Molina

65'

Alex Petxarroman← C. Albanis

65'

Jacobo González← Adrià Altimira

65'

Javier Llabrés← Óscar Pinchi

65'

Jofre Carreras← Roberto López

70'

César Gelabert← Álvaro Sanz

84'

Raúl Lizoain

86'

Raúl GarcíaPenalty

87'

Adrià Vilanova← Álex Pastor

87'

Carlos Martínez← Diego Pampín

90+1'

Iván Gil

90+3'

Jose Salinas

90'

Juanlu Sánchez

90+2'

N. Michelis← Beñat Prados

90+1'

David Vicente← Juanlu Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCMirandes

Overview

70%Possession30%

10Total Shots11

6Corners4

10Fouls19

Shots

10Total Shots11

2On Target4

5Off Target4

3Blocked3

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

70%Possession30%

623Total Passes268

568Accurate Passes201

91%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls19

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

Segunda División: FC Andorra 0–1 Mirandes

Mirandes beat FC Andorra 1-0 in Segunda División on April 30, 2023.

Goals: Raúl García (86' pen).

FC Andorra controlled possession (70%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadi Nacional in Andorra la Vella.

FC Andorra vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: FC Andorra 0–1 Mirandes