Mirandes 1–2 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cordoba

C. Fernandez 33'

S. Guardiola 90'

J. Gonzalez 1'

12/21/2025

Segunda División · Round 19Estadio Mendizorrotza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mirandes33%

×Draw25%

Cordoba42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.57

Mirandes

1.36

Cordoba

1.57

Cordoba creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.23

creates per match

1.71

1.43

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Cordoba

1.71

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Cordoba

1.50

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Cordoba+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

58%

Mirandes or Cordoba

75%

Draw or Cordoba

67%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

15%

Cordoba wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

74%

Mirandes 2+ goals

39%

Mirandes 3+ goals

16%

Cordoba 1+ goals

79%

Cordoba 2+ goals

46%

Cordoba 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

44%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Cordoba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cordoba attack 1.71 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mirandes scores more

33%

level

25%

Cordoba scores more

42%

Cordoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Fernandez

Mirandes · F

8.3

Match Events

1'

J. Gonzalez↳ A. Fuentes

23'

Álex Martín

29'

Juan María Alcedo

33'

C. Fernandez↳ H. Novoa Ramos

41'

Juan Gutiérrez

66'

M. Illesca← R. Bauza

67'

A. del Moral← D. de Almeida

72'

S. El Jebari← I. Varela

82'

P. Ortiz← D. Requena

84'

A. Cardero← C. Fernandez

84'

A. Mari← G. Petit

85'

N. Obolskiy← I. Ruiz

85'

S. Guardiola← A. Fuentes

89'

Sergi Guardiola

90+7'

Juan Gutiérrez

90+7'

Juan Gutiérrez

90'

S. Guardiola↳ C. Carracedo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesCordoba

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots16

10Corners8

18Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots16

2On Target6

5Off Target4

2Blocked6

7Inside Box13

2Outside Box3

Passing

40%Possession60%

265Total Passes406

170Accurate Passes346

64%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls13

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Segunda División: Mirandes 1–2 Cordoba

Cordoba beat Mirandes 2-1 in Segunda División on December 21, 2025.

Goals: J. Gonzalez (1'), C. Fernandez (33'), S. Guardiola (90').

Cordoba controlled possession (60%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Mendizorrotza in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Mirandes vs Cordoba — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Mirandes 1–2 Cordoba