Cordoba 1–2 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Cordoba

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mirandes

Ander Yoldi 70'

Pablo Tomeo 90'

Hugo Rincón 10'

5/19/2025

Segunda División · Round 40Estadio Nuevo Arcángel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cordoba49%

×Draw24%

Mirandes27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CordobaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.18

Cordoba

1.70

Mirandes

1.18

Cordoba creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.96

creates per match

1.05

1.30

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Cordoba

1.96

Mirandes

1.05

allows per match

Cordoba

1.30

Mirandes

1.44

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Cordoba-0.63scores less

Mirandes+0.08on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cordoba ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Cordoba or draw

73%

Cordoba or Mirandes

76%

Draw or Mirandes

51%

Winning margin

Cordoba wins by 2+

27%

Mirandes wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cordoba 1+ goals

82%

Cordoba 2+ goals

51%

Cordoba 3+ goals

24%

Mirandes 1+ goals

69%

Mirandes 2+ goals

33%

Mirandes 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cordoba (draw refunded)

65%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cordoba at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 6 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cordoba attack 1.96 + Mirandes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.70

Mirandes attack 1.05 + Cordoba defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Cordoba scores more

49%

level

24%

Mirandes scores more

27%

Cordoba at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

Hugo Rincón

Mirandes · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Pedro Ortiz

4'

Juan Gutiérrez

10'

Hugo Rincón↳ J. Panichelli

12'

Marvel← Rubén Alves

30'

Alberto Dadie← Iker Benito

39'

Cristian Carracedo

52'

Jacobo González

61'

Jon Magunazelaia← Pedro Ortiz

61'

Ander Yoldi← T. Zidane

70'

Ander Yoldi↳ Jacobo González

75'

M. Lachuer← Alberto Reina

76'

Calderón← Carlos Isaac

76'

Álex Calvo← Alberto Dadie

76'

Unai Eguíluz← Postigo

77'

Antonio Casas← N. Obolskiy

88'

Urko Izeta← Joel Roca

90'

Pablo Tomeo↳ Urko Izeta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CordobaMirandes

Overview

68%Possession32%

14Total Shots12

5Corners2

17Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots12

5On Target5

6Off Target4

3Blocked3

9Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

467Total Passes219

411Accurate Passes160

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls14

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3