Mirandes 1–0 Cordoba: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cordoba

Alberto Reina 25'

8/16/2024

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mirandes33%

×Draw25%

Cordoba42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchCordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.57

Mirandes

1.36

Cordoba

1.57

Cordoba creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.23

creates per match

1.71

1.43

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Mirandes

1.23

Cordoba

1.71

allows per match

Mirandes

1.43

Cordoba

1.50

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

Mirandes+0.15scores more

Cordoba+0.29scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

58%

Mirandes or Cordoba

75%

Draw or Cordoba

67%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

15%

Cordoba wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

74%

Mirandes 2+ goals

39%

Mirandes 3+ goals

16%

Cordoba 1+ goals

79%

Cordoba 2+ goals

46%

Cordoba 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

44%

Cordoba (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 8 matches

Cordoba away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.23 + Cordoba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.36

Cordoba attack 1.71 + Mirandes defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mirandes scores more

33%

level

25%

Cordoba scores more

42%

Cordoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Juan Gutiérrez

Mirandes · D

8.2

Match Events

25'

Alberto Reina↳ Urko Izeta

45'

Sergio Postigo

52'

Víctor Parada← Julio Alonso

70'

Sergio Gabriel← Tachi

70'

T. Zidane← Genaro Rodríguez

70'

Antonio Casas← N. Obolskiy

78'

Ander Yoldi← Adilson

78'

Matías Barboza← José Martínez

84'

Asier← Sergio Gabriel

87'

Antonio Casas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesCordoba

Overview

31%Possession69%

4Total Shots24

2Corners9

7Fouls13

Shots

4Total Shots24

1On Target6

1Off Target7

2Blocked11

4Inside Box12

0Outside Box12

Passing

31%Possession69%

236Total Passes505

166Accurate Passes441

70%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0