Mirandes 2–2 Almeria: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Almeria

J. Hernandez 60', 10'

S. Arribas 86' (pen)

A. Munoz 36'

1/10/2026

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Mirandes40%

×Draw27%

Almeria33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.20

Mirandes

1.34

Almeria

1.20

Mirandes creates 12% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 131 away

1.42

creates per match

1.29

1.11

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Almeria

1.29

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

67%

Mirandes or Almeria

73%

Draw or Almeria

60%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

18%

Almeria wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

74%

Mirandes 2+ goals

39%

Mirandes 3+ goals

15%

Almeria 1+ goals

70%

Almeria 2+ goals

34%

Almeria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

55%

Almeria (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 149 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Almeria attack 1.29 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mirandes scores more

40%

level

27%

Almeria scores more

33%

Mirandes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Hernandez

Mirandes · M

9.2

Match Events

10'

29'

30'

36'

60'

J. Hernandez↳ S. El Jebari

67'

A. Cardero← J. Hernandez

71'

Álex Cardero

71'

A. Puigmal← Leo Baptistao

71'

A. Horta← S. Dzodic

71'

M. Luna← D. Chirino

76'

A. Mari← S. El Jebari

76'

T. Tamarit← C. Fernandez

80'

M. Perovic← A. Centelles

86'

S. ArribasPenalty

87'

J. Cabello← H. Novoa Ramos

90+3'

Fernando Medrano

90+1'

Thiago Helguera

90+2'

Sergio Arribas

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesAlmeria

Overview

37%Possession63%

9Total Shots18

0.99Expected Goals (xG)2.02

4Corners7

16Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots18

3On Target7

3Off Target8

3Blocked3

5Inside Box9

4Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

288Total Passes492

211Accurate Passes415

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2