Almeria 4–2 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Almeria

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Mirandes

J. Morcillo 90' (pen)

F. Medrano 58' (OG)

J. Gutierrez 15' (OG)

Leo Baptistao 1'

S. El Jebari 18'

F. Medrano 3'

5/4/2026

Segunda División · Round 38UD Almeria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Almeria53%

×Draw25%

Mirandes22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmeriaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.97

Almeria

1.64

Mirandes

0.97

Almeria creates 69% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 149 away

1.79

creates per match

1.00

0.95

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Almeria

1.79

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Almeria

0.95

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almeria+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Almeria or draw

78%

Almeria or Mirandes

75%

Draw or Mirandes

47%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+

28%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals

81%

Almeria 2+ goals

49%

Almeria 3+ goals

23%

Mirandes 1+ goals

62%

Mirandes 2+ goals

25%

Mirandes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)

70%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 130 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 1.79 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Almeria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Almeria scores more

53%

level

25%

Mirandes scores more

22%

Almeria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Morcillo

Almeria · F

8.0

Match Events

1'

Leo Baptistao↳ M. Luna

3'

F. Medrano↳ S. El Jebari

15'

J. GutierrezOwn goal

18'

S. El Jebari↳ H. Novoa Ramos

52'

Juan Gutiérrez

58'

F. MedranoOwn goal

62'

Léo Baptistão

63'

A. Puigmal← Leo Baptistao

65'

Salim El Jebari

74'

J. Morcillo← A. Embarba

76'

P. Perez← S. El Jebari

76'

T. Tamarit← H. Novoa Ramos

82'

J. Martinez Landa← A. Houary

87'

Thalys← M. de la Fuente

87'

A. Horta← S. Arribas

89'

Juan Palomares

90+2'

M. Malsa← J. Hernandez

90'

J. MorcilloPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmeriaMirandes

Overview

59%Possession41%

9Total Shots12

1.38Expected Goals (xG)0.97

5Corners6

11Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target5

3Off Target4

3Blocked3

5Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

464Total Passes321

393Accurate Passes232

85%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Segunda División: Almeria 4–2 Mirandes

Almeria beat Mirandes 4-2 in Segunda División on May 4, 2026.

Goals: Leo Baptistao (1'), F. Medrano (3', 58' o.g.), J. Gutierrez (15' o.g.), S. El Jebari (18'), J. Morcillo (90' pen).

Almeria controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at UD Almeria Stadium in Almeria.

Almeria vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Almeria 4–2 Mirandes