Almeria 1–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Almeria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mirandes

Léo Baptistão 7'

12/13/2024

Segunda División · Round 19UD Almería Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 132+ matches

Almeria53%

×Draw25%

Mirandes22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlmeriaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.97

Almeria

1.63

Mirandes

0.97

Almeria creates 68% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 149 away

1.77

creates per match

1.00

0.95

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Almeria

1.77

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Almeria

0.95

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Almeria+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Almeria or draw

78%

Almeria or Mirandes

75%

Draw or Mirandes

47%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+

28%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals

80%

Almeria 2+ goals

48%

Almeria 3+ goals

22%

Mirandes 1+ goals

62%

Mirandes 2+ goals

25%

Mirandes 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)

70%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.95 · 132 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 1.77 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.63

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Almeria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Almeria scores more

53%

level

25%

Mirandes scores more

22%

Almeria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Fernando Martínez

Almeria · G

7.7

Match Events

7'

Léo Baptistão

13'

Chumi

25'

Marc Pubill

29'

Hugo Rincon Lumbreras

50'

Dion Lopy

57'

Hugo Rincon LumbrerasPenalty cancelled

64'

Álex Pozo← Arnau Puigmal

67'

Sergio Arribas

69'

Urko Izeta← S. Homenchenko

71'

Gonzalo Melero

72'

Alberto Reina

74'

Álex Centelles← Léo Baptistão

74'

Nico Melamed← Sergio Arribas

76'

Julio Alonso← Hugo Rincón

85'

Ander Martín← Pablo Tomeo

89'

Rubén Quintanilla← Gonzalo Melero

89'

A. Radovanović← Bruno Langa

90+4'

Luis Javier Suárez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlmeriaMirandes

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots11

2Corners4

23Fouls17

Shots

9Total Shots11

4On Target3

3Off Target6

2Blocked2

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

321Total Passes432

239Accurate Passes357

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

23Fouls17

6Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1