Mirandes 1–4 Almeria: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Almeria

Iñigo Vicente 72' (pen)

Dyego Sousa 53', 23', 5'

Arnau Puigmal 26'

10/24/2021

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Mirandes40%

×Draw27%

Almeria33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchAlmeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.20

Mirandes

1.34

Almeria

1.20

Mirandes creates 12% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 131 away

1.42

creates per match

1.28

1.11

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Almeria

1.28

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Almeria

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Almeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

67%

Mirandes or Almeria

73%

Draw or Almeria

60%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

18%

Almeria wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

74%

Mirandes 2+ goals

39%

Mirandes 3+ goals

15%

Almeria 1+ goals

70%

Almeria 2+ goals

34%

Almeria 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

55%

Almeria (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Almeria attack 1.28 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mirandes scores more

40%

level

27%

Almeria scores more

33%

Mirandes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Dyego Sousa

Almeria · F

9.9

Match Events

5'

Dyego Sousa↳ Portillo

23'

Dyego Sousa↳ Álex Centelles

25'

Oriol Rey

26'

Arnau Puigmal↳ Dyego Sousa

29'

Riccardo Capellini

46'

César Gelabert← R. Capellini

46'

Iñigo Vicente← Brugui

49'

Iván Martos

53'

Dyego Sousa↳ Portillo

59'

U. Sadiq← Dyego Sousa

60'

César de la Hoz

65'

Simón Moreno← Sergio Camello

65'

Curro Sánchez← César de la Hoz

66'

José Carlos Lazo← A. Appiah

72'

Iñigo VicentePenalty

76'

Rodrigo Riquelme← H. Hassan

80'

Juanjo Nieto← Alejandro Pozo

80'

S. Babić← Iván Martos

90+6'

José Carlos Lazo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesAlmeria

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots10

2Corners2

14Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots10

2On Target6

4Off Target1

6Blocked3

5Inside Box8

7Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

477Total Passes381

410Accurate Passes315

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Almeria

Almeria beat Mirandes 4-1 in Segunda División on October 24, 2021.

Goals: Dyego Sousa (5', 23', 53'), Arnau Puigmal (26'), Iñigo Vicente (72' pen).

Mirandes controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Anduva in Miranda de Ebro.

Mirandes vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mirandes vs Almeria