Minnesota United FC vs FC Dallas — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 34+ matches
Minnesota United FC48%
FC Dallas28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Minnesota United FC creates 37% more chances
Season form · 34 home / 37 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Minnesota United FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Minnesota United FC at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.13 · 34 matches
FC Dallas away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.66 · 37 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Minnesota United FC attack 1.67 + FC Dallas defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67
FC Dallas attack 1.31 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.22
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Minnesota United FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Minnesota United FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FC Dallas substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC
Real Salt LakeFC Dallas
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
St. Louis CityMinnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
Colorado Rapids
Portland Timbers
San Diego
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
DC United
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
Toronto FC
CF Montreal
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Minnesota United FC host FC Dallas on Sunday, 9 June 2024 at 00:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
Major League Soccer: Minnesota United FC 1–1 FC Dallas
Minnesota United FC and FC Dallas drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on June 9, 2024.
Goals: H. Dotson (9'), L. Fraser (15').
FC Dallas controlled possession (65%) and registered 9 shots to 14.
The match was played at Allianz Field in Saint Paul, Minnesota.