FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 35+ matches
FC Dallas43%
Minnesota United FC32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Dallas creates 20% more chances
Season form · 35 home / 39 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Dallas ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Dallas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.32 · 35 matches
Minnesota United FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.74 · 39 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Dallas attack 1.45 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59
Minnesota United FC attack 1.35 + FC Dallas defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
FC Dallas at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "FC Dallas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Los Angeles FC
Real Salt LakeFC Dallas
Seattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
St. Louis CityMinnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
Colorado Rapids
Portland Timbers
San Diego
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
Charlotte
New York Red Bulls
DC United
Orlando City SC
Columbus Crew
Toronto FC
CF Montreal
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
FC Dallas host Minnesota United FC on Thursday, 20 June 2024 at 00:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
Major League Soccer: FC Dallas 5–3 Minnesota United FC
FC Dallas beat Minnesota United FC 5-3 in Major League Soccer on June 20, 2024.
Goals: P. Musa (17', 38', 62'), B. Hlongwane (32'), H. Dotson (57'), J. Ferreira (75'), L. Farrington (90'), W. Trapp (90+9' pen).
Minnesota United FC controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 9.
The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.