FC Dallas 1–2 Minnesota United FC: Result & Stats

FC Dallas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Minnesota United FC

L. Farrington 73'

A. Markanich 58'

C. Harvey 35'

7/5/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 20Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

FC Dallas44%

×Draw25%

Minnesota United FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC DallasExpected goals in this matchMinnesota United FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.31

FC Dallas

1.59

Minnesota United FC

1.31

FC Dallas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 39 away

1.45

creates per match

1.35

1.28

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

FC Dallas

1.45

Minnesota United FC

1.35

allows per match

FC Dallas

1.28

Minnesota United FC

1.74

+0.55scores more than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

FC Dallas+0.55scores more

Minnesota United FC+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Dallas ↓

Minnesota United FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Dallas or draw

68%

FC Dallas or Minnesota United FC

75%

Draw or Minnesota United FC

56%

Winning margin

FC Dallas wins by 2+

22%

Minnesota United FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Dallas 1+ goals

80%

FC Dallas 2+ goals

47%

FC Dallas 3+ goals

21%

Minnesota United FC 1+ goals

73%

Minnesota United FC 2+ goals

38%

Minnesota United FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Dallas (draw refunded)

58%

Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Dallas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.28 · 37 matches

Minnesota United FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.74 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Dallas attack 1.45 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.59

Minnesota United FC attack 1.35 + FC Dallas defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Dallas scores more

44%

level

25%

Minnesota United FC scores more

32%

FC Dallas at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Dallas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

J. Gressel

Minnesota United FC · D

7.9

Match Events

35'

C. Harvey↳ J. Gressel

38'

Tani Oluwaseyi

45+2'

Kelvin Yeboah

47'

Shaq Moore

58'

A. Markanich↳ T. Oluwaseyi

59'

Ramiro← Kaick

59'

Pedrinho← S. Lletget

64'

B. Hlongwane← T. Oluwaseyi

64'

O. Gene← K. Yeboah

73'

L. Farrington↳ P. Musa

81'

J. Diaz← N. Romero

87'

S. Jeong← J. Gressel

87'

M. Duggan← A. Markanich

89'

S. Sarver← M. Farfan

90'

Alvaro Augusto← P. Delgado

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCMinnesota

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots16

1.30Expected Goals (xG)2.55

4Corners8

10Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots16

6On Target6

8Off Target7

1Blocked3

9Inside Box9

6Outside Box7

Passing

53%Possession47%

501Total Passes458

437Accurate Passes388

87%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

0.38Goals Prevented0.38

Discipline

10Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0