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Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County — League Two 2018

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Notts County
Notts County
9/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 7Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons47%
×Draw25%
Notts County28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.60
Notts County
1.18

Milton Keynes Dons creates 36% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 94 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.61
Notts County
1.38

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
0.98
Notts County
1.60

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Notts County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
72%
Milton Keynes Dons or Notts County
75%
Draw or Notts County
53%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
24%
Notts County wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
80%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
47%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
22%
Notts County 1+ goals
69%
Notts County 2+ goals
33%
Notts County 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
63%
Notts County (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.98 · 93 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.60 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.61 + Notts County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.60

Notts County attack 1.38 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
47%
level
25%
Notts County scores more
28%

Milton Keynes Dons at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Milton Keynes Dons vs Notts County

Milton Keynes Dons and Notts County drew 1-1 in League Two on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.