Milton Keynes Dons 1–3 Derby: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Derby

9/26/2015

Championship · Round 9Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons33%

×Draw27%

Derby40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.30

Milton Keynes Dons

1.16

Derby

1.30

Derby creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 145 away

0.75

creates per match

1.10

1.50

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.75

Derby

1.10

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.50

Derby

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

60%

Milton Keynes Dons or Derby

73%

Draw or Derby

67%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

14%

Derby wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

69%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

32%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

11%

Derby 1+ goals

73%

Derby 2+ goals

37%

Derby 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

45%

Derby (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Derby away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.57 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 0.75 + Derby defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.16

Derby attack 1.10 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

33%

level

27%

Derby scores more

40%

Derby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff