Derby 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Derby

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

2/13/2016

Championship · Round 31iPro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Derby40%

×Draw35%

Milton Keynes Dons25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DerbyExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

0.68

Derby

0.94

Milton Keynes Dons

0.68

Derby creates 38% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 5 away

1.27

creates per match

0.40

0.96

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Derby

1.27

Milton Keynes Dons

0.40

allows per match

Derby

0.96

Milton Keynes Dons

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Derby+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Derby or draw

75%

Derby or Milton Keynes Dons

65%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

60%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+

15%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals

61%

Derby 2+ goals

24%

Derby 3+ goals

7%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

49%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

15%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)

61%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.96 · 142 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 0.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.27 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.94

Milton Keynes Dons attack 0.40 + Derby defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Derby scores more

40%

level

35%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

25%

Derby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff