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Derby vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
4/10/2023League OneLeague One · Round 41Pride Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Derby50%
×Draw25%
Milton Keynes Dons25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.58
Milton Keynes Dons
1.05

Derby creates 50% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 95 away

creates per match

Derby
1.76
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Derby
0.83
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Derby or draw
75%
Derby or Milton Keynes Dons
75%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
50%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
26%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
79%
Derby 2+ goals
47%
Derby 3+ goals
21%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
65%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
28%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
66%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.76 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.58

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Derby defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Derby scores more
50%
level
25%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
25%

Derby at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Derby 1–1 Milton Keynes Dons

Derby and Milton Keynes Dons drew 1-1 in League One on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Pride Park Stadium in Derby.