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Milton Keynes Dons vs Colchester — League Two 2025

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Colchester
Colchester
M. Macey 39' (OG)
3/18/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 38Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons46%
×Draw27%
Colchester27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.41
Colchester
1.02

Milton Keynes Dons creates 38% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 27 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.67
Colchester
1.11

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
0.94
Colchester
1.15

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
73%
Milton Keynes Dons or Colchester
73%
Draw or Colchester
54%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
22%
Colchester wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
76%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
41%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
17%
Colchester 1+ goals
64%
Colchester 2+ goals
27%
Colchester 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
63%
Colchester (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.94 · 48 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.67 + Colchester defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.41

Colchester attack 1.11 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
46%
level
27%
Colchester scores more
27%

Milton Keynes Dons at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. EkpitetaMilton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons · D
8.3

Match Events

13'
Kyreece Lisbie
19'
Samson Tovide
39'
M. MaceyOwn goal
44'
Daniel Crowley
52'
Jack Sanders
60'
S. Hogan← D. Crowley
64'
W. Goodwin← S. Tovide
64'
J. Payne← R. Hunt
70'
R. Hepburn-Murphy← A. Collins
71'
C. Nelson← B. Wiles
72'
Tom Flanagan
72'
R. Akachukwu← F. Barbrook
73'
O. Edwards← K. Lisbie
74'
J. Williams← H. Anderson
79'
Jack Payne
88'
A. Nemane← G. Jones
88'
C. Lemonheigh-Evans← L. Kelly

Possession

51%Milton

Shots

17Milton

Pass accuracy

50%Milton

Statistics

MiltonColchester
Overview
51%Possession49%
17Total Shots8
2.22Expected Goals (xG)0.71
3Corners4
15Fouls8
Shots
17Total Shots8
3On Target0
9Off Target4
5Blocked4
14Inside Box4
3Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
431Total Passes409
327Accurate Passes309
76%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
0Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls8
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Milton Keynes Dons vs Colchester

Milton Keynes Dons beat Colchester 1-0 in League Two on March 18, 2026.

Goals: M. Macey (39' o.g.).

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes.