Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Milton Keynes Dons vs Colchester — League Two 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Colchester
Colchester
J. Payne 87' (pen)
3/1/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 34Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons47%
×Draw26%
Colchester27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.47
Colchester
1.06

Milton Keynes Dons creates 39% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 47 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.64
Colchester
1.09

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.03
Colchester
1.30

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
73%
Milton Keynes Dons or Colchester
74%
Draw or Colchester
53%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
23%
Colchester wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
77%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
43%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
18%
Colchester 1+ goals
65%
Colchester 2+ goals
29%
Colchester 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
63%
Colchester (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.64 + Colchester defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.47

Colchester attack 1.09 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
47%
level
26%
Colchester scores more
27%

Milton Keynes Dons at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
E. IandoloColchesterColchester · D
7.6

Match Events

28'
Joe White
28'
John-Kymani Gordon
62'
O. Thorn← H. Anderson
62'
T. Simpson← S. Tovide
65'
S. Hogan← D. Orsi
66'
C. Hendry← J. White
73'
K. Vincent-Young← M. Egbo
73'
A. Read← L. Taylor
79'
T. O'Reilly← A. Nemane
83'
K. Thompson-Sommers← L. Kelly
84'
K. Aboh← J. Gordon
86'
Alex Gilbey
87'
J. PaynePenalty
90+2'
Callum Hendry
90+1'
Tyreece Simpson

Possession

52%Milton

Shots

5Milton

Pass accuracy

51%Milton

Statistics

MiltonColchester
Overview
52%Possession48%
5Total Shots14
1Corners7
11Fouls13
Shots
5Total Shots14
0On Target2
4Off Target8
1Blocked4
1Inside Box10
4Outside Box4
Passing
52%Possession48%
478Total Passes434
385Accurate Passes343
81%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
11Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
3Offsides0

League Two: Milton Keynes Dons 0–1 Colchester

Colchester beat Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 in League Two on March 1, 2025.

Goals: J. Payne (87' pen).

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.