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Colchester vs Milton Keynes Dons — League Two 2025

Colchester
Colchester
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
J. Payne 90' (pen)
1/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Colchester Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Colchester35%
×Draw26%
Milton Keynes Dons39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.30
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 34 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.39
Milton Keynes Dons
1.76

allows per match

Colchester
1.00
Milton Keynes Dons
1.21

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
61%
Colchester or Milton Keynes Dons
74%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
65%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
15%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
73%
Colchester 2+ goals
37%
Colchester 3+ goals
14%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
75%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
40%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
48%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.00 · 28 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.39 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.76 + Colchester defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Colchester scores more
35%
level
26%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
39%

Milton Keynes Dons at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
J. SandersMilton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons · D
8.3

Match Events

20'
R. Hunt← T. Bishop
60'
Luke Offord
61'
S. Hogan← C. Paterson
61'
K. Thompson-Sommers← A. Collins
61'
C. Lemonheigh-Evans← D. Crowley
64'
K. Lisbie← S. Tovide
64'
M. Mbick← W. Goodwin
83'
A. Nemane← M. Ekpiteta
87'
J. Leko← R. Hepburn-Murphy
90+5'
Jack Payne
90'
Jonathan Leko
90+5'
F. Terry← O. Edwards
90'
J. PaynePenalty

Possession

60%Colchester

Shots

10Colchester

Pass accuracy

55%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterMilton
Overview
60%Possession40%
10Total Shots9
1.43Expected Goals (xG)1.00
6Corners3
9Fouls14
Shots
10Total Shots9
2On Target4
4Off Target4
4Blocked1
4Inside Box8
6Outside Box1
Passing
60%Possession40%
426Total Passes293
309Accurate Passes176
73%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

League Two: Colchester 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons

Colchester beat Milton Keynes Dons 1-0 in League Two on January 1, 2026.

Goals: J. Payne (90' pen).

Colchester controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at Colchester Community Stadium in Colchester.