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Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham — League Two 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
L. Maguire 86'
E. Harrison 75'
A. Gilbey 22'
G. Miller 13'
L. Young 6'
11/16/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 16Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons53%
×Draw24%
Cheltenham24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.76
Cheltenham
1.10

Milton Keynes Dons creates 60% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 47 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.64
Cheltenham
1.17

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.03
Cheltenham
1.89

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
76%
Milton Keynes Dons or Cheltenham
76%
Draw or Cheltenham
47%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
29%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
83%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
52%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
26%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
67%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
30%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
69%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 61 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.89 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.64 + Cheltenham defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Cheltenham attack 1.17 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
53%
level
24%
Cheltenham scores more
24%

Milton Keynes Dons at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
A. GilbeyMilton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons · F
7.9

Match Events

6'
L. Young↳ J. Colwill
13'
G. Miller↳ T. Bradbury
22'
A. Gilbey
34'
Kane Thompson-Sommers
45+5'
D. Lewington← M. Williams
46'
L. Kelly← K. Thompson-Sommers
46'
C. Hendry← J. Tomlinson
68'
L. Dulson← J. Colwill
69'
E. Harrison← S. Wearne
75'
E. Harrison↳ S. Hogan
79'
L. Shipley← G. Miller
86'
L. Maguire
88'
T. Pett← L. Payne
88'
R. Bowman← I. Bakare
88'
M. Taylor← J. Thomas

Possession

58%Milton

Shots

7Milton

Pass accuracy

56%Milton

Statistics

MiltonCheltenham
Overview
58%Possession42%
7Total Shots12
4Corners8
9Fouls10
Shots
7Total Shots12
5On Target4
1Off Target4
1Blocked4
5Inside Box4
2Outside Box8
Passing
58%Possession42%
461Total Passes335
307Accurate Passes175
67%Pass Accuracy52%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham

Milton Keynes Dons beat Cheltenham 3-2 in League Two on November 16, 2024.

Goals: L. Young (6'), G. Miller (13'), A. Gilbey (22'), E. Harrison (75'), L. Maguire (86').

Milton Keynes Dons controlled possession (58%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.