Cheltenham 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Milton Keynes Dons

J. Sanders 9'

3/22/2025

League Two · Round 38EV Charger Points Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Cheltenham29%

×Draw27%

Milton Keynes Dons44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.40

Cheltenham

1.07

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

Milton Keynes Dons creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

1.20

creates per match

1.24

1.56

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.20

Milton Keynes Dons

1.24

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.56

Milton Keynes Dons

0.94

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

Cheltenham+0.40scores more

Milton Keynes Dons+0.59scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

56%

Cheltenham or Milton Keynes Dons

73%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

71%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

11%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

66%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

29%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

9%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

75%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

41%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

39%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.20 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.07

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.24 + Cheltenham defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cheltenham scores more

29%

level

27%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

44%

Milton Keynes Dons at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32

J. Sanders

Milton Keynes Dons · D

8.3

Match Events

9'

J. Sanders↳ J. White

46'

A. Jude-Boyd← T. Backwell

65'

A. Hay← M. Taylor

65'

L. Dulson← V. Adedokun

69'

74'

80'

80'

87'

88'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CheltenhamMilton

Overview

40%Possession60%

7Total Shots18

5Corners6

9Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots18

2On Target5

1Off Target6

4Blocked7

5Inside Box13

2Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

249Total Passes392

154Accurate Passes286

62%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls16

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2