Milton Keynes Dons 2–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cheltenham

M. Eisa 59' (pen), 45+2'

A. May 90+7'

E. Bonds 12'

4/15/2023

League One · Round 42Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons37%

×Draw29%

Cheltenham34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.07

Milton Keynes Dons

1.14

Cheltenham

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 5 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

1.14

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

Cheltenham

1.00

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.14

Cheltenham

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

66%

Milton Keynes Dons or Cheltenham

71%

Draw or Cheltenham

63%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

15%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

68%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

32%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

11%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

66%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

29%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

52%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Cheltenham defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cheltenham attack 1.00 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

37%

level

29%

Cheltenham scores more

34%

Milton Keynes Dons at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

E. Bonds

Cheltenham · M

8.2

Match Events

12'

E. Bonds

32'

Sean Long

45+2'

M. Eisa↳ N. Holland

59'

M. EisaPenalty

64'

J. Leko← N. Holland

68'

T. Perry← J. Olayinka

75'

G. Rea← S. Long

75'

L. Freestone← T. Bradbury

78'

W. Grigg← M. Eisa

82'

C. Brown← R. Jackson

90+2'

Dean Lewington

90+8'

Alfie May

90+3'

B. Johnson← J. McEachran

90+3'

E. Robson← C. Grant

90+7'

A. May

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonCheltenham

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots13

6Corners4

8Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target5

3Off Target5

6Blocked3

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box9

Passing

62%Possession38%

501Total Passes298

409Accurate Passes205

82%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3