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Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham — League One 2018

Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
3/8/2022League OneLeague One · Round 25Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons47%
×Draw26%
Cheltenham27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Milton Keynes Dons
1.49
Cheltenham
1.07

Milton Keynes Dons creates 39% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 69 away

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.31
Cheltenham
1.01

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons
1.14
Cheltenham
1.67

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw
73%
Milton Keynes Dons or Cheltenham
74%
Draw or Cheltenham
53%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
23%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
77%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
44%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
19%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
66%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
29%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
63%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 93 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.31 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more
47%
level
26%
Cheltenham scores more
27%

Milton Keynes Dons at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Milton Keynes Dons vs Cheltenham

Milton Keynes Dons beat Cheltenham 3-1 in League One on March 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadium mk in Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire.