Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Cambridge United

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cambridge United

C. Paterson 42'

S. Kaikai 66'

12/13/2025

League Two · Round 20Stadium MK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons41%

×Draw29%

Cambridge United31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.01

Milton Keynes Dons

1.21

Cambridge United

1.01

Milton Keynes Dons creates 20% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 26 away

1.70

creates per match

1.04

0.98

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.70

Cambridge United

1.04

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

0.98

Cambridge United

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

69%

Milton Keynes Dons or Cambridge United

71%

Draw or Cambridge United

59%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

18%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

70%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

34%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

12%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

64%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

27%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

57%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.98 · 53 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.70 + Cambridge United defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.21

Cambridge United attack 1.04 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

41%

level

29%

Cambridge United scores more

31%

Milton Keynes Dons at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Paterson

Milton Keynes Dons · F

8.2

Match Events

15'

Laurence Maguire

22'

A. Collins← N. Mendez-Laing

28'

A. Nemane← L. Maguire

42'

C. Paterson↳ L. Kelly

45+4'

P. Mpanzu← K. Smith

46'

J. Gibbons← B. Purrington

50'

Kane Thompson-Sommers

52'

Ben Knight

64'

J. Brophy← B. Knight

64'

E. Kachunga← L. Bennett

65'

D. Crowley← L. Kelly

65'

W. Collar← K. Thompson-Sommers

66'

S. Kaikai↳ J. Gibbons

81'

Z. Ibsen Rossi← S. Kaikai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiltonCambridge

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots12

1.06Expected Goals (xG)2.06

7Corners4

11Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots12

4On Target3

4Off Target4

5Blocked5

8Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

299Total Passes320

178Accurate Passes194

60%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1