Cambridge United 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons

Cambridge United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

W. O'Hora 60'

3/19/2022

League One · Round 39Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Cambridge United38%

×Draw27%

Milton Keynes Dons35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

Cambridge United

1.31

Milton Keynes Dons

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

1.07

creates per match

1.18

1.33

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.07

Milton Keynes Dons

1.18

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.33

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

65%

Cambridge United or Milton Keynes Dons

73%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

62%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

17%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

73%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

38%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

14%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

71%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

36%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

52%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.07 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.18 + Cambridge United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cambridge United scores more

38%

level

27%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

35%

Cambridge United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Coventry

Milton Keynes Dons · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

David Kasumu

22'

Paul Digby

51'

Warren O'Hora

54'

J. McEachran← D. Kasumu

60'

W. O'Hora↳ M. Eisa

71'

W. Hoolahan← H. Knibbs

73'

H. Boateng← T. Parrott

77'

J. Lankester← S. Smith

78'

A. May← L. ONeil

83'

C. Wickham← M. Eisa

88'

Conor Coventry

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeMilton

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots8

1Corners8

14Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target4

7Off Target3

2Blocked1

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

361Total Passes508

262Accurate Passes401

73%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0