Cambridge United 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons

Cambridge United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

H. Knibbs 17'

7/30/2022

League One · Round 1Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United36%

×Draw27%

Milton Keynes Dons37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.25

Cambridge United

1.24

Milton Keynes Dons

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 95 away

1.08

creates per match

1.27

1.22

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.08

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

allows per match

Cambridge United

1.22

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

63%

Cambridge United or Milton Keynes Dons

73%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

64%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

16%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

71%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

35%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

13%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

71%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

36%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

50%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cambridge United scores more

36%

level

27%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

37%

Milton Keynes Dons at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

W. O'Hora

Milton Keynes Dons · D

7.5

Match Events

9'

Harvey Knibbs

17'

H. Knibbs↳ J. Brophy

37'

B. Johnson← J. McEachran

41'

Henry Lawrence

57'

Warren O'Hora

59'

Lloyd Jones

61'

D. Oyegoke← H. Lawrence

61'

L. Barry← D. Kemp

71'

L. O'Neil← H. Knibbs

72'

S. Tracey← J. Ironside

82'

B. Haunstrup← H. Dunk

82'

82'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeMilton

Overview

33%Possession67%

12Total Shots8

3Corners5

11Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots8

3On Target0

4Off Target4

5Blocked4

6Inside Box2

6Outside Box6

Passing

33%Possession67%

263Total Passes552

151Accurate Passes454

57%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0