Milton Keynes Dons 4–1 Cambridge United

Milton Keynes Dons

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Cambridge United

11/13/2021

League One · Round 17Stadium mk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Milton Keynes Dons50%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milton Keynes DonsExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.01

Milton Keynes Dons

1.54

Cambridge United

1.01

Milton Keynes Dons creates 52% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 92 away

1.31

creates per match

0.89

1.14

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.31

Cambridge United

0.89

allows per match

Milton Keynes Dons

1.14

Cambridge United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milton Keynes Dons ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Milton Keynes Dons or draw

75%

Milton Keynes Dons or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

50%

Winning margin

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

25%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

79%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

45%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

20%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

64%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

27%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

67%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milton Keynes Dons at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.14 · 93 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.31 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

50%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

25%

Milton Keynes Dons at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Milton Keynes Dons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff